Archive for the ‘Market Expectations’ tag
Fed Fund Futures Expect Slim Chance of Rate Hike in Near-Term
The Fed fund futures market expectations of a rate
hike continue to diminish after today’s modest rise in the
University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index.
Markets are currently pricing in an 88% chance of no rate hike for the
Sept. 16 meeting. This is a 2% increase from yesterday’s 86% reading and
4% rise from last week’s result.
What’s Priced In: Current Market Expectations for Future Monetary Policy
Markets are currently pricing in the following probabilities for
future interest rate moves as of the close on Monday:
FED - OIS Implied Rates
Markets are pricing in a 22% chance of a 25bp hike by the next meeting
on Sept. 16.
Markets are pricing in a 38% chance of a 25bp hike by year-end.
Markets are pricing in a 100% chance of…
Fed Watch: Bernanke Testimony Focuses on Growth, FOMC Minutes Released
Current Rate: 2.00%
Next Rate Decision: Aug. 5
Market
Expectations: The OIS implied rate suggests markets are 16% priced in for
a 25bp hike at the next meeting and are pricing in a 41%
chance of a quarter-point hike at the September meeting.
Last week was a fairly busy week for Federal Reserve news, with two
days of testimony from Chairman Ben Bernanke before the Senate Banking
Committee on Tuesday and the House of Representatives’ Committee on
Financial Services on Wednesday. Also on Wednesday, the Federal Open
Market Committee released the minutes from its June 24-25 monetary policy
meeting.