Archive for the ‘Year End’ tag
Central Bank Watch: Banks in Wait-and-See Mode, Some Moves Expected by Year End
Another round of major world central bank decisions
are out of the way, yet rates are still where they were at prior to the
decisions. However, many economists expect at least some of the banks to
start moving on rates before the end of the year.
What’s Priced In: Current Market Expectations for Future Monetary Policy
Markets are currently pricing in the following probabilities for
future interest rate moves as of the close on Monday:
FED - OIS Implied Rates
Markets are pricing in a 22% chance of a 25bp hike by the next meeting
on Sept. 16.
Markets are pricing in a 38% chance of a 25bp hike by year-end.
Markets are pricing in a 100% chance of…
Fed Funds Price Out Rate Hikes Following ECB Hold on Rates
Despite a better-than-expected pending home sales report coming out of
the U.S. on Thursday, the day’s soft jobless claims figures are instead
dictating the direction of the Fed fund futures
market.
Year-end rate hikes are consequently in the midst of being priced out.
Markets are pricing in a 62.3% chance that the Federal Reserve will keep
rates on hold. That represents an 18% greater chance than…